Mar 5 2020
Q: WHO just raised fatality rate to over 3%. Do you still believe this is no big deal? it’s certainly a very big deal to the ill and elderly. Based on those rates, if these hold, many more people could die from this versus the flu, if the same number gets infected.
A: Yes!
Q: When you get a moment, please read this guy’s entire thread - not just this post. It seems a fact based and therefore worrisome. Do you have hard data that shows this is of little concern?
A: He is actually quoting the same R0 number I quoted in my last email. The rest is a bunch of truisms related to SYMPTOMATIC people with severe form of infection.
Q: What hard data do you have that shows this virus is no big deal? Medical web sites? Really not trying to be argumentative, just looking for facts. I haven’t seen any hard data supporting that…Q: What hard data do you have that shows this virus is no big deal? Medical web sites? Really not trying to be argumentative, just looking for facts. I haven’t seen any hard data supporting that this is no more than a cold. An anecdotal data is frightening - 1st reported case in NY is a 50 year old lawyer who ends up in critical care. I just flew back from the East Coast last night and scheduled to fly to Colorado tomorrow to ski over the weekend. I want to be thoroughly informed to make good decisions.
A: Hey, there is abundance of hard data published every day. That’s where I got numbers, which I used in my email. If you noticed, the email includes the spreadsheet and particularly includes so-called SARS. It is at the very bottom of the spreadsheet along with flu and some other infections. Importantly the way people read data is skewed, because of the panic instilled by media and some politicians. It also influences scientists. There’s no doubt about that. They have a very specific goal - keep finding flowing. There is no better way to get allocations of billions of dollars then by promoting apocalyptic version of the events. The same happens in defense industry. It propels, for instance, Russian threat or Chinese threat to the point of hysteria and gets $1 trillion to build new ships, submarines, rockets, and waste money all over the place. There is no reason to believe that scientist is somehow more noble than defense industry. When it comes to Russia, I assure you, there is nothing further from the truth than information you can see on the TV, newspapers, etc. it is not only incorrect - it is ridiculous and criminal spread such misinformation, but people do that because they need funding for their companies, factories, and so on…
Now, look at the waste of time and productivity which affects even you and me, when we spent hours researching something which would be only a footnote in a few years.
I had cases when patients had to be intubated as a result of flu or other infection. In many cases, we didn’t know which one until much later or never. It does happen. But it does not mean that we have to panic.
Q: I understand your point that there are many more asymptomatic infections than reported and / or symptomatic infections. is there a scientific or medical web site that shows that? Better yet, shows that there really have been millions infected in China? Otherwise it’s just a theory. It may be correct but I’m seeking hard data.
I also understand there’s a lot of emotion is going on. Everyone of our companies has now implemented travel restrictions and some are implementing work from home. I’m trying to get them hard data to help make them informed decisions.
What are your thoughts on me continuing to fly for now? Are you still traveling by plane now?
A: Do you really want to see all of these scientific papers? I can forward a bunch to you but what’s the point? Common things been common - virtually all infections from anthrax to measles to tuberculosis to flu conform to the same simple rules. HIV including.
It is very difficult to understand scientific papers even if you were in the specialty. The scientists who publish frequently do not understand themselves what they just published but they know - the more scandalous it is the better it is published and faster. If you read New England Journal of Medicine, or any other journal, you will see that important articles also have an editorial, which tries to interpret the data and next issue(s) will have comments/letters pro- and contra- and authors replies. In many cases it’s 180° and it comes from very smart and accomplished people.
Yes, I will be flying, unless airlines will be grounded.
Q: No, I definitely don’t want to read a bunch of papers. Summary would be great if one exists. Here’s a link to the Lancet for diagnosis and treatment. This is being forwarded around and causing further concern among the general population and our companies.
A: Yes, I saw that, but this is a flow chart which equally applies to every other infection under the sun. Again, people just got cases of coronavirus and they start publishing like crazy. Most of the publications are case based and contain assumptions, not facts. It is a really bad idea to put this kind of flowchart into general public view. They do not understand that the very second box describes a patient who is ill but, for some reason, indicates that if PO2 is <93% - then... while abnormal PO2 is <89%. Right there they cheat!