Feb 23 2020
Q: One thing I forgot to ask you - did your views change at all in the R rate and mortality rates on the new Coronavirus? I’m flying quite a bit. anything you’d advise I do?
A: I do not worry about the virus. It is greatly exaggerated by media hype. There are thousands of viruses, including hundreds of coronaviruses - they cause 10-15% of all upper respiratory infections. The experts/scientists and WHO found hyping epidemics as the most effective way to keep getting funded. At the same time, 80,000 people die from flu in the US alone. Have you heard anyone getting hysterical about that?
Q: True, but the mortality rate for flu isn’t anywhere near 2% is it?
A: it is a detection bias: most people with flu or other upper respiratory infections never get tested. For instance: two of your colleagues were very sick while attending the last company meeting. They did not get tested and, therefore, it is a wild guess what they actually had. Also, your firm did not ban them from the meeting and they were not quarantined. Anyway, I would not worry, because flu and other infections affect and kill people with pre-existing conditions. The chance of a healthy, well fed person to suffer serious harm is zero.
This is from UpToDate The importance of testing for other pathogens was highlighted in a report of 210 symptomatic patients with suspected COVID-19; 30 tested positive for another respiratory viral pathogen, and 11 tested positive for COVID-19. That makes it around 5% detection rate in sick people with URI who met criteria for testing, e.g. these were not random people with “cold”.
The contribution of coronoviruses (in multiple) to upper respiratory infections is 10-15%
Further from UpToDate Coronaviruses are important human and animal pathogens. During epidemics, they are the cause of up to one-third of community-acquired upper respiratory tract infections in adults and probably also play a role in severe respiratory infections in both children and adults. In addition, it is possible that certain coronaviruses cause diarrhea in infants and children.
This refers to historical numbers - e.g. coronoviruses caused 30% of URIs during URI “flu” epidemics as we usually call them. FYI: in the United States, among 11 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, nine had travelled to Wuhan, China, and the other two had been in close contact with patients who had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19